Indonesia's Next President Will Probably Be Prabowo Subianto
Based on the quick count results, presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto will win the 2024 presidential election by a comfortable margin. Not only does he enjoy around 57-59 percent of the national votes, but he also seems to control at least 20 percent of the votes in over 20 provinces. This would mean that a second round is not even necessary. Still, we have to wait for the official result that is scheduled to be released on 20 March 2024.
What are the main findings of Indonesia's 2024 presidential and legislative elections?
- Prabowo Subianto is assumed to have won the presidential election in one round by a comfortable margin.
- Presidential candidate Ganjar Pranowo, who initially seemed to have a big chance to win the 2024 elections, scored poorly in the quick count results (in fact, most likely, Anies Baswedan secured the second place in the race). Pranowo only enjoyed around 16-17 percent of the national votes based on the quick counts. So, it seems that he only managed to attract the votes of PDI-P members, but failed to find voters outside of the hardcore PDI-P base.
Quick Count Results Indonesia's Presidential Election 2024:
| Candidate |
Litbang Kompas |
Indikator | LSI Denny JA | Charta Politika | Poltracking Indonesia |
PRC |
|
| Anies Baswedan | 25.10% | 25.32% | 25.21% | 25.66% | 24.37% | 24.08% | |
| Prabowo Subianto |
58.73% | 58.00% | 58.16% | 57.81% | 59.35% | 59.32% | |
| Ganjar Pranowo | 16.17% | 16.68% | 16.64% | 16.51% | 16.28% | 16.60% | |
- We assume that key to Prabowo Subianto's success was that many loyalists of President Joko Widodo were attracted by the presence of Widodo's son Gibran Rakabuming (Prabowo's running mate). Many believe that Widodo remains looking over Prabowo's shoulder in the coming five years, hence expect to see the continuation of Widodo's programs and policies. Even in Central Java and Yogyakarta (where the PDI-P party is always dominant) Ganjar failed to secure a regional victory. Instead, most voters in Central Java (despite Ganjar being Governor of Central Java) and Yogyakarta threw their support behind Prabowo.
- Still, the PDI-P seems to have won the legislative election, implying that many people voted for the PDI-P in the legislative election, but not for the PDI-P's presidential candidate (Ganjar) in the presidential election. There could be some strategy at play here: voting for Prabowo as president but at the same time voting for PDI-P to make sure that there is a force in the House of Representatives that can oppose Prabowo (if needed).
Quick Count Results Indonesia's Legislative Election 2024:
| Party |
Lingkaran Survei Indonesia |
Indikator | Poltracking Indonesia |
|
| PDI-P |
16.96% | 16.47% | 17.84% | |
| Golkar | 14.89% | 14.92% | 15.38% | |
| Gerindra | 13.02% | 13.44% | 13.16% | |
| PKB | 10.80% | 10.37% | 11.91% | |
| Nasdem | 8.68% | 9.37% | 8.50% | |
| PKS | 8.00% | 8.28% | 7.67% | |
| PD | 7.83% | 7.72% | 7.26% | |
| PAN | 6.84% | 7.23% | 6.74% | |
| PPP | 3.67% | 3.57% | 3.60% | |
It is also interesting to mention that markets responded positively on the quick count results. On Thursday (15.02.2024), Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) soared nearly 1.5 percent, presumably because there is now certainty over Indonesian leadership in the next five years.
In our February 2024 report we release an in-depth analysis of the elections. Subscribe to our monthly reports here.
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