Market Waiting for Today's Release of Indonesia's Inflation and Trade Balance

In recent history, Indonesia usually records inflation of around 1.0 percent in January. If the pace can be curbed below the 1.0 percent level this year, then investors will be pleased. Preliminary forecasts suggested an inflation level of just below 1.0 percent. However, it remains uncertain to what extent the floods in Indonesia (particularly Jakarta and Manado) have temporarily disrupted distribution systems and thus caused inflationary pressures.

2013	Inflation
January	1.03%
February	0.75%
March	0.63%
April	-0.10%
May	-0.03%
June	1.03%
July	3.29%
August	1.12%
September	-0.35%
October	0.09%
November	0.12%
December	0.55%
Total	8.38%

	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Inflation (annual percent change)	9.8	4.8	5.1	5.4	4.3	8.4

^{Source: Statistics Indonesia}

Indonesia's December 2013 trade balance is expected to record a surplus for the third consecutive month. At the end of last week, the country's Finance Minister Chatib Basri predicted a monthly trade surplus of about USD $800 million, supported by improved exports in the non-oil & gas sector. As such, the current account deficit (which had been a great concern to many investors for most of this year) has been curtailed significantly. From 4.4 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2013 (USD $9.9 billion), it has been reduced to between 3.0 and 3.5 percent of GDP by the end of 2013. Concern is now changing from Indonesia's trade balance to capital outflows amid the Federal Reserve's winding down of its quantitative easing program.

Indonesia's Trade Balance 2013 (in billion US Dollar):

2013	Export			Import
Month	Oil & Gas	Non Oil & Gas	Total	Oil & Gas	Non Oil & Gas	Total
January	2,66	12,72	15,38	3,97	11,48	15,45
February	2,57	12,45	15,02	3,64	11,67	15,31
March	2,93	12,09	15,02	3,90	10,99	14,89
April	2,45	12,31	14,76	3,63	12,83	16,46
May	2,92	13,21	16,13	3,43	13,23	16,66
June	2,80	11,96	14,76	3,53	12,11	15,64
July	2,28	12,81	15,09	4,14	13,28	17,42
August	2,72	10,36	13,08	3,67	9,34	13,01
September	2,41	12,29	14,70	3,72	11,79	15,51
October	2,72	12,99	15,70	3,47	12,20	15,67
November	2,75	13,18	15,93	3,94	11,21	15,15
Jan-Nov	29,21	136,36	165,57	41,0	130,13	171,17

^{Source: Statistics Indonesia}

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