News Update Indonesian Presidential Election: Prabowo vs Jokowi

The ballot boxes opened first in Papua in Indonesia’s far eastern region (due to a two-hour time difference with Jakarta). Preliminary reports say that attendance in Papuan polling stations was low. This can be explained by Papuans feeling alienated by Indonesian politics (since the 1960s there has been a subversive movement, the Free Papua Movement, which aims for independence from Indonesia) but also by the semi-final between Germany and Brazil in the FIFA Football World Cup that was played early this morning.

The Indonesian electorate numbers around 185 million individuals (out a total population of 250 million). Due to Indonesia’s young demographic composition, about 70 million people are first-time voters.

Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, together with his wife are expected to vote around 10:30 am local Jakarta time in Taman Suropati Menteng (Central Jakarta). Jokowi’s running mate, vice-presidential candidate Jusuf Kalla, and his family arrived around 09:40 am in a polling station in Kebayoran Baru (South Jakarta).

Prabowo Subianto’s running mate, Hatta Rajasa (joined by his family), cast his vote in his hometown of Jejawi (South Sumatra) around 09:30 am. Around noon, Prabowo Subianto cast his vote in Bogor (West Java).

A preliminary exit poll by Indikator Politik Indonesia, shown on MetroTV (a news station owned by Surya Paloh who supports the Jokowi-Kalla pair) at 11:10 am local Jakarta time, indicates that Jokowi is slightly ahead of Subianto. According to the poll, Jokowi secured 43.80 percent of the vote, while Subianto received 40.40 percent. The remainder kept its choice secret. Meanwhile, an exit poll by the Indonesia Research Center (IRC) shows a 52.30 percent lead for Subianto, and Jokowi with 47.7 percent. This poll was shown on news station TVOne (linked to the Bakrie Group which supports the Subianto-Rajasa pair).

Around 14:30 pm local Jakarta time several quick count results showed a 5 percentage point lead for Jokowi. With this result in mind (and a margin of error of below two percent) Chairwoman of the PDI-P Megawati Soekarnoputri then organized a press conference in which she labelled Jokowi the winner of the election (the PDI-P was the winner of the April legislative election and had declared Jokowi as its presidential candidate). In this press conference Jokowi and Jusuf Kalla also speeched and thanked the people.

Although stock and financial markets in Indonesia were closed, the Indonesian rupiah and bond markets rose in offshore trade today after Jokowi was labelled winner of the election by the PDI-P party. The rupiah exchange rate rose 2 percent in offshore non-deliverable forwards to around 11,525 per US dollar.

Matters have become more confusing in the afternoon as not all quick counts indicate a Jokowi win. At 15:35 pm, Prabowo gave a speech in which he thanked the people who gave him the mandate to become president, basing his 'victory' on a quick count that gives him a lead. Prabowo emphasized that Indonesia needs to wait until all data are collected by the quick count agencies.

Indonesian news agency Kompas.com reports that the quick count by Litbang Kompas shows a Jokowi victory. According to the poll, Jokowi secured 52.36 percent of the votes after 99.9 percent of the votes have been counted. Litbang Kompas further reports that 28.68 percent of the Indonesian electorate abstained from voting today.

Quick Count results Indonesian Presidential Election 2014:

Candidate		Indikator Politik Indonesia	Lingkaran Survei Indonesia	Litbang Kompas	CSIS-Cyrus Networks	Poltracking Indonesia	Populi Center
Subianto		47.06%	46.72%	47.66%	48.10%	46.63%	49.05%
Widodo		52.94%	53.28%	52.34%	51.90%	53.37%	50.95%

 

Candidate		Saiful Mujani Research Center	Radio Republik Indonesia	Puskaptis	Indonesia Research Center	Lembaga Survei Nasional	Jaringan Suara Indonesia
Subianto		47.03%	47.38%	52.05%	51.11%	50.19%	50.16%
Widodo		52.97%	52.62%	47.95%	48.89%	49.81%	49.84%

^{Source: Investor Daily}

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