Projections Indonesia's April 2014 Inflation and March 2014 Trade Balance
Head of Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik or BPS) Suryamin said that inflation in April 2014 is estimated to be low or will turn into deflation as food stockpiles in a number of regions are sufficient amid the peak of the harvest season. Suryamin based his estimation on BPS monitoring conducted from 17 April. The monitoring indicated that prices of the main food commodities (which include rice, chili, chicken meat, cooking oil as well as beef) are stable or even declining from the previous month.
The month of April usually brings low inflation or deflation due to the annual peak of the harvest season. This effect tends to continue into May. However, in July there are traditional inflationary pressures because of the Islamic fasting month (Ramadan) as well as the arrival of the new school year.
Inflation in Indonesia:
Month | Monthly Growth 2013 |
Monthly Growth 2014 |
January | 1.03% | 1.07% |
February | 0.75% | 0.26% |
March | 0.63% | 0.08% |
April | -0.10% | |
May | -0.03% | |
June | 1.03% | |
July | 3.29% | |
August | 1.12% | |
September | -0.35% | |
October | 0.09% | |
November | 0.12% | |
December | 0.55% | |
Total | 8.38% | 1.41% |
2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | |
Inflation (annual percent change) |
9.8 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 8.4 |
Source: Statistics Indonesia
Trade Balance March 2014
Suryamin also stated that he expects another trade surplus in March 2014 as exports have been picking up, particularly non-oil & gas exports such as shoes, garments and textiles. Moreover, the price of coal - one of Indonesia's most important export products - has risen lately. The negative impact of the new 2009 Mining Law, which bans exports of unprocessed minerals, has eased according to Suryamin. Another trade surplus in March will help to further curb the country's current account deficit.
Indonesia's Trade Balance 2014 (in billion US Dollar):
2014 | Export | Import | ||||
Month | Oil & Gas | Non Oil & Gas | Total | Oil & Gas |
Non Oil & Gas | Total |
January | 2,50 | 11,97 | 14,47 | 3,55 | 11,37 | 14,92 |
February | 2,66 | 11,91 | 14,57 | 3,46 | 10,33 | 13,79 |
Jan-Feb | 5,16 | 23.88 | 29,04 | 7,01 | 21,69 | 28,70 |
Indonesia's Trade Balance 2013 (in billion US Dollar):
2013 | Export | Import | ||||
Month | Oil & Gas | Non Oil & Gas | Total | Oil & Gas |
Non Oil & Gas | Total |
January | 2,66 | 12,72 | 15,38 | 3,97 | 11,48 | 15,45 |
February | 2,57 | 12,45 | 15,02 | 3,64 | 11,67 | 15,31 |
March | 2,93 | 12,09 | 15,02 | 3,90 | 10,99 | 14,89 |
April | 2,45 | 12,31 | 14,76 | 3,63 | 12,83 | 16,46 |
May | 2,92 | 13,21 | 16,13 | 3,43 | 13,23 | 16,66 |
June | 2,80 | 11,96 | 14,76 | 3,53 | 12,11 | 15,64 |
July | 2,28 | 12,81 | 15,09 | 4,14 | 13,28 | 17,42 |
August | 2,72 | 10,36 | 13,08 | 3,67 | 9,34 | 13,01 |
September | 2,41 | 12,29 | 14,70 | 3,72 | 11,79 | 15,51 |
October | 2,72 | 12,99 | 15,70 | 3,47 | 12,20 | 15,67 |
November | 2,77 | 13,17 | 15,94 | 3,70 | 11,21 | 15,15 |
December | 3,41 | 13,58 | 16,98 | 4,22 | 11,24 | 15,46 |
Jan-Dec | 32,63 | 149,93 | 182,57 | 45,27 | 141,36 | 186,36 |
Source: Statistics Indonesia
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