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Berita Hari Ini Ceramics
There still seems no light to appear at the end of the tunnel for ceramic manufacturers in Indonesia. The ceramic industry is largely dependent on the property sector. However, as Indonesia's property sector growth has remained insignificant so far in 2017, there is few room for ceramic sales growth. Moreover, local ceramic producers have to compete with cheap imports from abroad.
Several Indonesian ceramic producers have reportedly stopped production as stocks of ceramics are piling up at their warehouses. Normally, in the good old days when there existed high demand for ceramic products (due to Indonesia's booming property sector), stocks of ceramics lasted for only two weeks. Now, however, amid sluggish growth of Indonesia's property sector, the existing stocks of ceramics are estimated to cover at least three months.
The Indonesian Ceramic Industry Association (Asaki) estimates that production costs in Indonesia's ceramic industry could decline up to 35 percent now the government plans to lower the gas price for industrial usage. Elisa Sinaga, Chairman of the Asaki, said Indonesian ceramic producers currently pay an average USD $9.1 per mmbtu (million metric British thermal units) for the ceramic production process, considerably higher than the gas prices that manufacturers pay in Singapore, Thailand, and India. This difference makes Indonesian ceramic products less competitive.
Ceramic sales in Indonesia in the first quarter of 2016 are estimated to stand at 85 million square meters (m2) only, far below the 100 million m2 target that was set by the Indonesian Ceramic Industry Association (Asaki). Weak demand for ceramics in Indonesia is primarily caused by the country's sluggish property sector that is yet to rebound after several years of slowdown. Elisa Sinaga, Chairman of Asaki, stated that despite ceramic sales having improved slightly in late-2015, demand fell again in the first quarter of 2016 and remained weak up to the start of April 2016.
Although ceramic sales in Indonesia are flat in Q1-2016, some stakeholders remain optimistic that sales of ceramics in Indonesia may grow 20 percent (y/y) to 433 million square meters in 2016. This growth comes on the back of the government's push for infrastructure development, promotional activities (conducted by Indonesia's ceramic industry), and the lower gas price. Infrastructure development will encourage property development. With the property sector being the largest buyer of ceramics, Indonesia's ceramic industry should thrive on government-led infrastructure development.
Ceramic sales in Indonesia are projected to decline to IDR 25 trillion (approx. USD $1.8 billion) in 2015 from total sales worth IDR 36 trillion last year. Elisa Sinaga, Chairman of the Indonesian Ceramic Industry Association (ASAKI), said 2015 is a year full of challenges for the domestic ceramic industry due to Indonesia's slowing economic growth (particularly the slowdown of the nation's property sector), high gas prices, higher minimum wages, and the fragile rupiah (having depreciated around 11 percent against the US dollar so far in 2015).
The ceramic industry in Indonesia is expected to grow about ten percent in 2015 amid the country’s +5 percentage point GDP growth. Economic expansion translates to increased purchasing power of Indonesian consumers and the ceramic industry is one of the industries that will benefit from this. Moreover, as Indonesian President Joko Widodo targets +7 percent GDP by the end of his term, new infrastructure and property projects are to rise as well. As such, domestic ceramic demand will increase accordingly.
The Indonesian ceramic industry is expected to continue its steady growth in 2014. Chairman of the Indonesian Ceramic Industry Association (ASAKI) Elisa Sinaga said that ceramic sales may reach IDR 36 trillion (USD $3.1 billion) in 2014. Most of these sales - approximately 87 percent - are sold on the domestic market, while the remainder is exported. The sales volume of sanitary ceramics (used on walls and floors) is targeted at 410 million m2 this year (worth roughly IDR 27 trillion), up from 360 million m2 in 2013 (IDR 24 trillion).
Growth of the Indonesian property sector, estimated at 10 to 15 percent in 2014, boosts sales of ceramics. Similarly, the nation's construction sector - which grew 7 percent per year on average between 2009 and 2013 - stimulates the ceramic industry. This year, revenue in the Indonesian ceramic industry is projected at IDR 34 trillion (USD $3.0 billion). About 85 percent of total revenue in the country's ceramic industry is forecast to be generated through domestic sales, the remainder through exports abroad.
Indonesia Investments updated the company profile of Arwana Citramulia. The company is one of the big four ceramics manufacturers in Indonesia, commanding a domestic market share of 20 percent in Indonesia's ceramics industry. It produces low cost ceramic tiles to serve the medium-low segment market nationwide. As Indonesia's ceramic consumption is still very low at one square meter per capita, the company expects good growth in the years ahead and therefore opened a fourth plant in 2013.
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Utilization of Indonesia's installed ceramic production capacity fell from 92 percent in 2014 to 62 percent in 2015, while the country's ceramic sales plunged 28.6 percent (y/y) to 350 million square meters over the same period. Elisa Sinaga, Chairman of the Indonesian Ceramic Industry Association (ASAKI), said ceramic sales have fallen over the past two years due to slowing economic growth and the sluggish property sector. Sales are expected to remain stagnant in 2016.
Higher sales, higher selling prices, and lower production costs are expected to impact positively on the performance of Arwana Citramulia, one of Indonesia's big four ceramic manufacturers. The company's ceramic sales volume is projected to surge 35 percent (y/y) to 53 million square meters in 2016 from this year's estimated 40 million square meters, partly supported by the start of operations of Arwana Citramulia's new factory in Mojokerto (East Java). Arwana controls about 26 percent of Indonesia's ceramic tiles market among low-income consumers with its two flagship brands: Arwana and Uno.
With slowing economic growth and a stricter monetary policy approach of the central bank, Indonesia's ceramic industry is expected to record slowing growth in 2014. This year, the country's ceramic sales are projected to amount to 400 million square meters (m²). About 12 percent of this amount is exported to countries abroad. However, in 2014, sales are expected to plunge by 5 to 10% to 360-380 million m². A weakening rupiah and slowing property sector, which accounts for significant ceramic demand, are the major causes of the decline.
Starting from 1 September 2013, the minimum down payment for the purchase of a second house or apartment (bigger than 70 m²) in Indonesia will be raised to 40 percent. Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) implements this new rule to avoid a possible credit bubble in Indonesia's property sector. The country's property sector has been booming in recent years, giving rise to many new property projects, soaring profits for property companies (as well as impressive stock performance) and significantly rising property prices.
Indonesia's ceramic industry recorded sales amounting to IDR 14 trillion (USD $1.4 billion) in the first six months of 2013. This implies a 27 percent increase compared to ceramic sales in the same period in 2012. The increase is particularly caused by higher sales prices in January and March 2013 which were introduced to mitigate higher gas and electricity tariffs as well as higher minimum wages. Generally, ceramic prices rose 10 to 15 percent. Ceramics sales volume in semester I-2013 increased to 190 million m² from 180 m² in 2012.
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