American finance firm Goldman Sachs Group Inc expects a big flow of funds from Japan to enter Indonesia's capital markets if credit rating agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) decides to upgrade Indonesia's sovereign debt rating to investment grade. While Fitch Ratings and Moody's Investors Service have already upgraded Indonesia to investment grade status several years ago, S&P still rates Indonesia's debt one notch below investment grade, implying various big institutional investors cannot invest in Indonesian debt as they require investment grade ratings from all three key credit ratings agencies.

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Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati is hopeful that credit rating agency Standards & Poor's (S&P) will raise Indonesia's credit rating to investment grade. Hope is based on Indonesia's healthier state budget and the higher degree of fiscal credibility (supported by the ongoing tax amnesty program). Out of the big three global credit rating agencies only S&P is yet to assign investment grade status to Indonesia. In June 2016 S&P kept Indonesia's sovereign debt rating at BB+/positive outlook, one notch below investment grade.

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Credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service stated in a report released on Monday (24/06) that it is positive about the impact of the increase in price of subsidized fuel in Indonesia. Through this measure, the budget deficit of the Indonesian government is estimated to remain within 3 percent of GDP (the maximum threshold that is set by the government). Last Saturday (22/06), the price of gasoline was raised by 44 percent to IDR 6,000 and the price of diesel by 22 percent to IDR 5,500 despite widespread protests across the country.

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Credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service signaled in a new research report that it could upgrade Indonesia's current sovereign Baa3 (positive outlook) credit rating provided it detects an improvement in several macro-economic indicators. In 2012 Moody's granted the investment grade status back to Indonesia. Meanwhile, exactly one year ago (in February 2017) it upgraded Indonesia's sovereign credit rating outlook from stable to positive.

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International credit rating agency Fitch Ratings maintained Indonesia’s sovereign rating at BBB-/stable outlook (investment grade). Baradita Katoppo, President Director of Indonesia’s Fitch Ratings branch, said that the firm is positive about the country’s financial fundamentals and prudent fiscal policy as the central bank has showed to prefer stability over growth, resulting in slowing credit growth and rising foreign exchange reserves in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Economic growth is expected to fall to 5.1 percent (y/y) in 2014.

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One piece of evidence of international confidence in the Indonesian economy is the steady upgrades in the country's credit ratings by international financial services companies such as Standard & Poor's, Fitch Ratings and Moody's. In late 2011, Fitch Ratings was the first to reinstate Indonesia's investment grade status after a 14-year hiatus. In January 2012, Moody’s followed suit citing the country’s resilient economy. S&P may follow soon, depending on the fuel price hike issue.

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