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On Sunday (04.02.2024) Indonesia Investments released the January 2024 edition of its monthly report. The report offers analyses of various economic, political and social topics that are relevant in the present.
Indonesia is the world’s second-largest natural rubber producer (and therefore also ranks as the world’s second-biggest rubber exporter, after Thailand). However, this industry has also been facing some serious challenges. In this article, we are going to take a closer look at Indonesia’s rubber industry.
Rubber prices rose on Wednesday morning (26/07) as the Japanese yen weakened against the US dollar. The price of rubber (December 2017 delivery, the most-active contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, or Tocom), had gained 1.04 percent, or 2.2 points, to 213.70 yen per kilogram (kg) by 10:26 am local Jakarta time, after opening sideways at the level of 211.50 yen per kg. Yesterday, rubber prices climbed 1.05 percent.
The price of rubber rebounded on Tuesday morning (25/07), in line with the strengthening of crude oil prices. The rubber price (December 2017 delivery, the most-active contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange), had risen 2.05 percent to 213.60 yen per kilogram (kg) by 10:05 am local Jakarta time, while earlier this morning, rubber prices had in fact fallen 0.62 percent directly after the opening of trade.
Rubber prices fell sharply on Monday morning (24/07), in line with the strengthening Japanese yen. The price of rubber (December 2017 delivery, the most active contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange), had slid 2.33 percent to 209.50 yen per kilogram (kg) at 10:28 am local Jakarta time.
Rubber prices tumbled about 2 percent in early trading on Friday (21/07) after surging 4 percent in the previous trading session. The price of rubber for December 2017 delivery, the most active contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (Tocom), tumbled 1.99 percent (or 4.30 points) to 211.90 yen per kilogram at 07:40 am local Jakarta time. Ahead of this tumble, there occurred a rubber price rally as most farmers held back their rubber stock sales following expectations of higher prices.
The Indonesian Rubber Board says Indonesia's rubber production is expected to reach 3.16 million tons in 2016, up 1.61 percent (y/y) from last year's realization. The board said rising output comes on the back of an increase in the size of Indonesia's rubber plantations and an increase in productivity at the existing plantations. Indonesia is the world's second-largest rubber producer (after Thailand) and therefore its output has a major impact on global rubber prices (about 85 percent of Indonesia's rubber production is exported abroad).
Indonesian rubber producers do not welcome the government's decision to open the nation's crumb rubber sector to foreign ownership for the full 100 percent. This decision is part of the government's tenth economic stimulus package, announced last week. Stakeholders in Indonesia's rubber sector argue that current installed production capacity of existing rubber processing plants in Indonesia already exceeds domestic demand. Crumb rubber is recycled rubber produced from automotive as well as truck scrap tires.
Rubber production in West Java continues to decline each year as ageing rubber trees cause lower productivity. Jabar Iyus Supriatna, adviser to the Indonesian Rubber Farmers Association (Apkarindo), therefore requests the government to take action and increase support for Indonesia's upstream rubber sector. Reportedly, the average yearly rubber output in the province of West Java fell to below the 750 kilogram per hectare mark. Supriatna said production should be optimized to about 1.5 tons per hectare in this province (through the rejuvenation of the rubber trees).
The Indonesian government announced it plans to allow 100 percent foreign ownership of cold storage businesses, sugar factories, rubber manufacturing companies, and the e-commerce business by revising Presidential Regulation No. 39/2014 on the Negative Investment List. The Negative Investment List (in Indonesian: Daftar Negatif Investasi) lists the sectors that are either fully or partially closed to foreign investment. Meanwhile, the government is studying whether other sectors can also be opened (or opened up wider) to foreign investors.
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In late 2014 Indonesian rubber producers and exporters were not amused when the government of China decided to approve a new standard for compound rubber imports. The permitted crude rubber content in imported compound rubber was cut from 95-99.5 percent to 88 percent, meaning that compound rubber imports into China became subject to a 20 percent import duty (the same tariff as natural rubber import duties). China’s new policy is a blow to its rubber suppliers, which include Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam.
Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, the world’s three largest rubber producing countries (accounting for about 70 percent of total global natural rubber output), have agreed to avoid excessive natural rubber supply on the international market by limiting their rubber exports. The countries also agree to curb new rubber plantation development as well as to spur domestic rubber consumption in each country. This statement was read out by Douglas Uggah Embas, Plantation Industries Minister of Malaysia, in Kuala Lumpur today (20/11).
Singapore-based rubber producer Halcyon Agri Corporation Limited (HAC) will become the second-largest producer and exporter of Indonesian natural rubber after it announced to buy nine Indonesian rubber processing plants (involving USD $360 million worth of investments). HAC is an integrated producer as well as merchandiser of standard Indonesian rubber and standard Malaysian rubber, which are the most widely used grades of natural rubber in vehicle tyres manufacturing.
Statistics Indonesia (BPS), a non-departmental government institute, expects that Indonesia's trade balance will post a deficit of around USD $4 billion in 2014. The key question is whether increased manufacturing and agricultural exports can replace reduced raw mineral exports. The forecast of BPS is approximately similar to the country's trade deficit in 2013. Last year, Southeast Asia's largest economy recorded a deficit of USD $4.06 billion as the total value of exports amounted to USD $182.57 billion, while imports reached USD $186.63 billion.
Indonesian exports of crude palm oil (CPO) in June 2013 grew about 29 percent to 1.62 million ton compared to the same month last year. Although production of CPO in Indonesia slowed down in June, higher demand for Indonesia's CPO is met because there are still sufficient amounts of stockpiles. A high official at the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki) said that stockpiles in 2012 grew to 5 million tons as global demand for the commodity weakened sharply amid international economic turmoil.
The price of crude palm oil (CPO), which has been under downward pressure for a long time as global turmoil lingers on, started to rebound due to falling stockpiles in Indonesia and Malaysia. Reserves of the commodity fell because of weather conditions and because of an increase in demand ahead of the Islamic fasting month (Ramadhan). The price of crude palm oil is expected to hit the USD $900 per ton mark in late 2013, up from USD $828-865 per ton in May and June. This price recovery is expected to continue.
Indonesia already is a strong trade partner to a number of countries in Europe. Based on data released by Indonesia's Ministry of Trade, the Netherlands and Spain are two European countries that import a considerable amount of Indonesian products and thus are important contributors to Indonesia's trade surplus in the non oil & gas sector. But other European nations, such as Germany and Russia, pressure Indonesia's trade surplus. It indicates that, despite the wide distance, Indonesia and Europe have a close and valuable trade relationship.
Indonesia's trade balance recorded another deficit in April 2013 as imports (USD $16.31 billion) exceeded exports (USD $14.70 billion). April's trade deficit, amounting to USD $1.62 billion, was mainly due to continued weak commodity exports in combination with strong oil, basic machinery and utensils imports. After five consecutive months of deficits up to February, Indonesia’s trade account reported a surplus of USD $330 million in March, but fell back into deficit in April. From January to April, Indonesia's trade deficit stands at USD $1.85 billion.
Shareholders of Astra Agro Lestari, Indonesia's largest agribusiness company by value (which is particularly engaged in palm oil and rubber plantations), agreed to distribute IDR 1.08 trillion (USD $111 million) in dividends to its shareholders. The allocated amount is equivalent to about 45 percent of the company's net profit in 2012. Dividend per share is set at IDR 685 (USD $0.071). Last November, the company had already paid interim dividend of IDR 230 per share. Final dividend will be paid on 3 June 2013.
