After the ending of Indonesia's tax amnesty program, property players in Southeast Asia's largest economy remain optimistic that inflows of fresh funds - originating from the tax amnesty program - will give a boost to Indonesian property sector in the second half of 2017. This should then cause some momentum, meaning property developers dare to kick-start new projects. Considering weak demand for property in Indonesia over the past couple of years, many local property developers have been postponing projects.

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By relaxing the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects to see House Ownership Credit (Kredit Pemilikan Rumah, abbreviated KPR) growth to accelerate by an additional 5 percent. Up to April 2016, KPR growth was recorded at 7.61 percent (y/y) only, down significantly from the years 2012-2013 when - amid the glory years of property development in Indonesia - KPR growth touched figures of between 30 - 49 percent (y/y). Back then concerns emerged whether Indonesia was about to experience a price bubble in the property sector.

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Indonesia's banking sector expects that House Ownership Credit (Kredit Pemilikan Rumah, abbreviated KPR) will grow strongly in 2016 as Indonesian people's purchasing power and consumer confidence is estimated to improve amid accelerated economic growth. The majority of home buyers in Indonesia use KPR from a financial institution to finance the purchase of a house. However, interest rates on KPR are high and therefore a burden for many property buyers (although the government provides subsidy for the low-income group that uses KPR to finance a first-time property purchase).

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Stakeholders in Indonesia's property sector may regret to learn that Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR) decided to postpone deliberations on the tax amnesty bill until (at least) April 2016. This tax amnesty bill, originally planned to be implemented in early 2016, offers attractive tax rates to those tax evaders who declare untaxed wealth and repatriate their funds to Indonesia. If implemented in early 2016, then the bill was estimated to generate up to USD $4.4 billion in additional tax revenue in 2016. Meanwhile, part of repatriated funds would find their way into the nation's property sector.

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The latest survey of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) shows that price growth and sales growth in Indonesia's residential property sector continued to slow in the fourth quarter of 2015. The Q4-2015 residential property price index rose by a mere 0.73 percent (quarter-to-quarter) from a growth pace of 0.99 percent (q/q) in the preceding quarter. Indonesian property developers expect that this slowdown will continue at least throughout the first half of 2016.

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In its latest Indonesia Property Watch report, Fitch Ratings states that housing demand in Indonesia remained weak in the third quarter of 2015, leading to property developers' decision to postpone a number of new projects. Low commodity prices and high inflation (up to Q3-2015) led to sluggish demand and tepid economic growth in Southeast Asia's largest economy. Fitch Ratings said residential property price growth in Indonesia continued to slow for the eight consecutive quarter and believes prices are to remain muted in the coming year.

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Agensi kredit global Fitch Ratings menyatakan dalam laporan Indonesia Property Watch yang terakhir bahwa permintaan di sektor properti di Indonesia tidak akan segera membaik dalam jangka waktu pendek. Sementara itu, Pemerintah Indonesia mengimplementasikan kebijakan-kebijakan untuk mendinginkan pasar properti di 2013 (karena pihak berwenang kuatir tentang munculnya sebuah gelembung), baru-baru ini Pemerintah telah mengubah sikapnya dan mengimplementasikan tindakan-tindakan untuk mendongkrak pasar karena perlambatan ekonomi di negara ini. Kendati begitu, Fitch Ratings tidak memprediksi akan terjadi rebound dalam jangka waktu dekat.

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Sejalan dengan paket kebijakan ekonomi yang baru-baru ini diumumkan, Menteri Keuangan Bambang Brodjonegoro mengatakan bahwa Pemerintah berencana untuk merevisi kebijakan pajak barang mewah untuk rumah. Saat ini, rumah-rumah bernilai lebih Rp 2 miliar dikenai pajak barang mewah 20%. Pemerintah kini berencana untuk menaikkan batasannya menjadi Rp 10 miliar. Pajak barang mewah Indonesia diperkenalkan oleh rejim Orde Baru Suharto dalam rangka membatasi kesenjangan sosial dalam masyarakat Indonesia.

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Without giving details about the time frame, Indonesian Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro said that the government will soon allow foreigners to own luxurious apartments in Indonesia. This move would be the government’s latest move to boost the slowing economy. Currently, private foreign individuals cannot purchase property or own land in Indonesia. This prohibition has been in place for many years as Indonesian authorities were concerned that foreign ownership of Indonesian property and land would surge significantly.

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With continued economic growth in Indonesia, thus giving rise to higher per capita GDP, the property market is still expanding rapidly, particularly in the bigger cities such as Jakarta (the political and economic center of Indonesia). By 2015, 46 new property projects will add nearly 25,000 new apartments in Jakarta (‘strata title’, a term that refers to the multi-level apartment blocks and horizontal subdivisions with shared areas) with a combined value of about IDR 23 trillion (almost USD $2 billion).

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With the Indonesian government showing its commitment to push for infrastructure development, the property sector of Indonesia is expected to get a boost as infrastructure development opens access to new areas. For example, Indonesia's first high-speed train project that is to connect Jakarta and Bandung (in West Java) is expected to give rise to new economic centers and cities along the 142 kilometers-long railway. Moreover, existing property in the proximity of a new infrastructure project should lead to significantly rising property prices.

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Sektor properti residensial di Indonesia tetap menarik di 2015 kendati ada beberapa faktor yang menghambat pertumbuhan selama dua tahun terakhir. Dalam kolom ini saya membahas faktor-faktor yang telah melambatkan pertumbuhan di sektor properti Indonesia dan bagaimana pihak berwenang (seperti bank sentral dan Otoritas Jasa Keuangan) merespon tantangan-tantangan ini melalui peraturan baru. Terakhir, saya menyediakan sebuah update mengenai rencana Pemerintah, yang baru saja diumumkan, untuk mengizinkan kepemilikan asing atas apartemen mewah.

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