The price of cocoa is expected to remain bearish on the short-term as supplies are set to rise in the western part of Africa, particularly Ivory Coast and Ghana. At the end of trading on Wednesday (03/05) the cocoa price had slid 1.16 percent to USD $1,784 per ton (on the ICE Futures New York, July 2017 delivery). Since the start of 2017 the cocoa price has fallen 15.56 percent.

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Asosiasi Kakao Indonesia (Askindo) memperkirakan ekspor kakao Indonesia akan menurun 37% menjadi 25.000 ton pada tahun 2016 dari estimasi 40.000 ton pada tahun ini. Dengan demikian, ekspor kakao Indonesia tetap akan menurun. Pada tahun 2014 Indonesia masih mengekspor senilai total 63.334 ton kakao. Ekspor kakao negara ini telah jatuh karena pemerintah menetapkan rezim pajak yang lebih ketat sejak pertengahan 2014. Pajak ekspor kakao sebesar 10%, Pajak Pertambahan Nilai (PPN) sebesar 10% dan pajak penghasilan sebesar 0,5%. Sementara itu, produksi kakao dalam negeri yang rendah juga ikut menyebabkan kinerja ekspor yang lebih rendah.

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Chances of chocolate-based candy or food products becoming more expensive in the near future have grown due to the weak harvest in Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer. Most likely, the country will fail to fulfill sales contracts hence leading to higher global cocoa prices. In New York and London cocoa futures jumped roughly seven percent in recent weeks. Meanwhile, Indonesian cocoa exports declined 56 percent (y/y) in April 2015. The main cocoa producing regions have been struggling with bad weather and diseases.

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Contrary to most other (agricultural) commodities, the global price of cocoa has increased in the second half of 2014. While prices of commodities such as oil, soybeans, corn and wheat have eased due to robust global supply, and others - such as cotton - have eased amid lower global demand, the price of cocoa has been rising steadily. Despite a weak start in 2014, the cocoa price has grown over 10 percent (after having rallied around 25 percent in 2013). Main reason for this performance is the world’s rising cocoa demand.

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