Indonesia's inflation is expected to accelerate in January 2016 according to the country's central bank (Bank Indonesia). Bank Indonesia detected a spike in prices of several food commodities - such as shallots, chili, and beef - at the start of the year. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo told reporters that he expects the country's inflation rate to rise by around 0.75 percent month-on-month (m/m) in January. This would imply that inflation will accelerate to 4.38 percent on an annual basis (from 3.35 percent y/y in December 2015).

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Indonesia’s inflation figure this October may reach the highest level in five years primarily due to volatile food prices triggered by drought in several parts of Indonesia. Chili, in particular, has shown a widening gap between domestic demand and production thus adding inflationary pressures in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. The country’s central bank expects that the inflation figure may reach 0.4 percent (month-on-month, m/m), considerably higher than the historic average in October.

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Today (02/12), Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced that Indonesian inflation was recorded at 0.12 percent in November 2013. Suryamin, Head of BPS, said that the price movements of basic needs, including rice and chili, were under control in November, while other components, such as groceries and clothing, in fact recorded deflation. Compared to the month November in previous years, the 0.12 inflation rate is limited. In November 2012, inflation was recorded at 0.34 percent. Indonesia's year-on-year inflation rate now stands at 8.37 percent.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) sees a continued easing trend in inflationary pressures in October 2013. Indonesia's inflation in October 2013 was recorded at 0.09 percent (month-to-month), thus confirming the indication that monthly inflation is back to its normal pattern in the last five years. However, the annual inflation pace is still high at 8.32 percent (yoy). Limited inflation in October was influenced by deflation of the food group component (0.80 percent mtm), although commodity prices rose (especially red chili).

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Contrary to what most analysts expected, Indonesia experienced deflation of 0.35 percent in September 2013. The figure was released today (01/10) by Statistics Indonesia. Deflation was particularly triggered by easing food prices (including onions, peppers, beef, fresh fish and carrot) and lower tariffs for air and train transportation as well as inter-city transport fares. Previously, it was expected that Indonesia would record low inflation (less than 1 percent) in September. Year-on-year inflation eased to 8.40 percent (from 8.79 in August).

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Prices of certain food products in Indonesia have risen steeply during the first week of Ramadan, the Islamic fasting month. Higher prices are a sensitive issue at the moment as the country is fighting higher inflation after subsidized fuel prices were increased in June. Therefore, the central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 50 bps to 6.50 percent last week. If inflation exceeds 2.3 percent in July (month to month) then it might result in another upward revision of the interest rate, thus slowing down Indonesia's economic growth.

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According to data released by Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, abbreviated BPS), a non-departmental government institution, Indonesia's inflation figure eased 0.03 percent (month-to-month) in May 2013. The Head of BPS, Suryamin, said that it was the first time since ten years that the country experienced deflation in the month of May. The deflation figure is particularly triggered by the government's policy to allow for more imports of certain food products (such as onions, garlic, tomatoes, and chili).

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Today, Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, abbreviated BPS) released Indonesia's inflation figures for the month March 2013. According to Suryamin, head of BPS, the country's inflation last month reached the level of 0.63 percent, the highest March inflation level in five years. Particularly food prices drove the inflation rate upwards. Year-on-year inflation now stands at 5.90 percent, while year-to-date inflation (January-March) is 2.41 percent.

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Inflationary pressures eased in September 2013 to a 0.35% rate of deflation (mtm), or 8.40% (yoy). The rate of deflation exceeded the projections contained within the Price Monitoring Survey conducted by Bank Indonesia and much lower than inflation expectations by some analysts. Abundant supply in the wake of horticultural harvests (shallots and chilli peppers), triggered a deep correction in food prices. In addition, sliding beef prices also exacerbated further deflationary pressures, with volatile foods recording deflation of 3.38% (mtm).

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With fertile soils and supportive climatic conditions, production of horticultural products (such as fruits, vegetables, or herbal medicines), should be thriving in Indonesia. In reality, however, Indonesia's horticultural production has not been able to meet domestic demand of Indonesia. Various factors lay behind this situation. But in essence it comes down to a lack of productive farmers, while demand has risen steadily. In this given situation, horticultural products should be imported. If not, prices will rise significantly.

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