Quick Count Results Indonesian Election Mostly in Favour of Jokowi
As had been predicted previously by various popularity surveys, the outcome of the Indonesian presidential election, a race between Joko Widodo (known as Jokowi) and Prabowo Subianto, was close. In fact, after the unofficial yet reliable quick count results had been collected, both camps claimed a victory. However, the majority of the quick count results show a Jokowi victory with a margin of about five to six percentage points. On 22 July 2014, the Indonesian General Elections Commission (KPU) will announce the official result.
About 185 million Indonesians were eligible to vote in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Interestingly enough, about 70 million of these were first-time voters as Indonesia contains a young population. However, about 25 to 30 percent of the electorate abstained from voting.
Although the election was conducted in good order, matters became more tense after both camps claimed a victory (each basing their claim on different quick count results). It was remarkable that Jokowi, joined by running mate Jusuf Kalla and Megawati Soekarnoputri (Chairwoman of the PDI-P party which won the legislative election in April 2014) decided to organize a press conference to declare Jokowi the winner of the election when only around 70 percent of the votes had been collected. But apparently this camp was concerned that Prabowo Subianto would suddenly hold a press conference first in which he would claim a victory based on other quick count results. About one hour after Jokowi’s press conference, Subianto made his victorious statements in a press conference. Although the hasty moves of both presidential candidates could have resulted in public disorder, there were no such cases reported. However, the incumbent government emphasized that both candidates should ‘keep their cool’ in the next two weeks before the official figures are released on 22 July 2014.
Quick Count results Indonesian Presidential Election 2014:
| Candidate |
Indikator Politik Indonesia |
Lingkaran Survei Indonesia |
Litbang Kompas | CSIS-Cyrus Networks |
Poltracking Indonesia |
Populi Center |
|
| Subianto | 47.06% | 46.72% | 47.66% | 48.10% | 46.63% | 49.05% | |
| Widodo | 52.94% | 53.28% | 52.34% | 51.90% | 53.37% | 50.95% | |
| Candidate |
Saiful Mujani Research Center |
Radio Republik Indonesia | Puskaptis | Indonesia Research Center |
Lembaga Survei Nasional | Jaringan Suara Indonesia | |
| Subianto | 47.03% | 47.38% | 52.05% | 51.11% | 50.19% | 50.16% | |
| Widodo | 52.97% | 52.62% | 47.95% | 48.89% | 49.81% | 49.84% | |
Source: Investor Daily
As there is no certainty yet about the winner of the election, it remains uncertain how the stock and financial markets will perform on Thursday (10/07). Markets may be positive as chances of a Jokowi victory are larger than a Subianto win. However due to the unclear political situation, market participants may engage in profit taking, particularly as these markets have surged on the first two days of the week after the market started speculating about a Jokowi win (due to his good performance in the last presidential debate on Saturday and several surveys that indicated that his lead on Subianto had widened in early July). However, the release of the Fed minutes on Wednesday (09/07) will also contain important information for investors (these minutes will be released early on Thursday, local Indonesian time). The minutes may show earlier-than-expected US interest rate hikes and the continued winding down of the Fed’s quantitative easing program, which would strengthen the US dollar at the expense of the rupiah.