Analysis of Indonesia's Trade Balance: Strong Rebound in Imports
In July 2024, Indonesia saw its narrowest trade surplus since May 2023 as imports rebounded quite impressively. Fortunately, Indonesian exports also performed well in July 2024. If not, it would have meant an end to Indonesia’s trade surplus streak that has been ongoing for 51 successive months.
Based on the latest data from Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (BPS), Indonesia’s trade balance showed a surplus of USD $472.0 million in July 2024. By recent Indonesian standards, this is a very small trade surplus for Southeast Asia’s largest economy.
But before we delve into the latest trade statistics of Indonesia, let’s first take a closer look at the international trade environment.
International Trade
Regarding the outlook for global trade (which we typically base on reports released by the United Nations Trade and Development Conference, or UNCTAD), there has not been a real change over the past month. And so, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic for the second half of 2024 (and for sure this outlook seems better than it was at the start of the year).
As is widely known, a number of matters are causing trouble for global trade. Most notably, continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Russo-Ukrainian war, slowing global economic growth (dragged down by subdued economic growth in China), and the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate that has remained at a 23-year high (at the range of 5.25 – 5.50 percent).
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