Bank Indonesia: Consumer Price Index Expected to Rise 0.85% in July 2014

According to a Bank Indonesia survey, inflation was up 0.75 percent up to the third week of July (this survey does not cover all regions in Indonesia but does form a reliable indicator). However, in the last week of July prices may still feel the impact of inflationary pressures because Idul Fitri starts on July 28^th (Idul Fitri marks the end of the Ramadan month and is celebrated with great enthusiasm).

On a year-on-year basis, Indonesian inflation will ease considerably because July inflation in 2013 was extremely high (+3.29 percent month-to-month) due to the impact of higher subsidized fuel prices introduced in June 2013 to ease pressures on the government’s budget deficit. Annual inflation may moderate to 4.5 to 5.0 percent (year-on-year) in July 2014 from 6.70 percent (yoy) in June 2014. Adityaswara said that full-year 2014 inflation is still expected to be kept in the (wide) target range of the central bank (4.5 percent plus or minus one percent).

 
Inflation in Indonesia:

Month	Monthly Growth           2013	Monthly Growth           2014
January	1.03%	1.07%
February	0.75%	0.26%
March	0.63%	0.08%
April	-0.10%	-0.02%
May	-0.03%	0.16%
June	1.03%	0.43%
July	3.29%
August	1.12%
September	-0.35%
October	0.09%
November	0.12%
December	0.55%
Total	8.38%	1.99%

 

	Inflation Rate       June 2014	Inflation Rate   Calender 2014	Inflation Rate   year-on-year
General	0.43	1.99	6.70
- Core	0.25	1.88	4.81
- Administered Price	0.45	2.37	13.47
- Volatile	1.06	2.22	6.74

 

	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Inflation (annual percent change)	9.8	4.8	5.1	5.4	4.3	8.4

^{Source: Statistics Indonesia}

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