Car Sales Indonesia 2015: Declining amid Slowing Economic Growth

Indonesians’ purchasing power and consumer confidence weaken when inflation is high thus negatively affecting car sales. In April 2015, Indonesian inflation accelerated to 6.79 percent (y/y). Inflation has been high since late 2014 due to a subsidized fuel price hike conducted by the Indonesian government aimed at assembling funds for structural economic and social development of Indonesia. Although at the start of 2015 Indonesia’s inflation level moderated, recovering global oil prices made inflation accelerate again in April.

Similarly, the relatively high key interest rate of Bank Indonesia (currently at 7.50 percent) makes it harder for consumers to purchase loans (to buy cars). Between 2013 and 2015, the benchmark BI rate of the central bank was raised gradually from 5.75 percent to 7.75 percent in an attempt to combat high inflation, limit Indonesia’s wide current account deficit, support the rupiah, and avert possible capital outflows amid looming further monetary tightening in the USA. Although Bank Indonesia cut its BI rate by 25 basis points in February it is unlikely that we will see a more aggressive rate cut this year as macroeconomic conditions are not optimal and thus purchasing power and economic growth will be limited.

The weak rupiah (against the US dollar) also forms a problem as many car components are still imported from abroad instead of manufactured locally. As such, a depreciating rupiah will raise import costs for Indonesian car producers. Recently, Indonesian car producers have not been able to pass on these costs to end-users due to fierce competition between car manufacturers.

Since 2012 Indonesian car sales have exceeded one million (per year), reflecting robust economic growth (car sales form an important indicator for consumer confidence and purchasing power), while per capita car ownership in Indonesia is still relatively low. However, due to economic troubles Indonesian car sales have declined since 2012 (when sales hit a record high at 1.23 million).

According to the latest data from Gaikindo, Indonesian car sales (wholesale) declined 14 percent (y/y) to 282,250 vehicles in the first quarter of 2015, reflecting weakening purchasing power amid slowing economic growth.

Indonesian Car Sales (CBU):

Month	Sold Cars 2012	Sold Cars 2013	Sold Cars 2014	Sold Cars 2015
January	76,427	96,718	103,609	94,149
February	86,486	103,278	111,824	88,738
March	87,917	95,996	113,067	99,363
April	87,144	102,257	106,124
May	95,541	99,697	96,872
June	101,746	104,268	110,614
July	102,511	112,178	91,334
August	76,445	77,964	96,652
September	102,100	115,974	102,572
October	106,754	112,039	105,222
November	103,703	111,841	91,327
December	89,456	97,706	78,802
Total	1,116,230	1,229,916	1,208,019	282,250

^{Source: Gaikindo}

The low cost green car (LCGC), which was introduced to the Indonesian market in late 2013, is expected to gain popularity this year. These cars, which are relatively immune to currency fluctuations as at least 85 percent of LCGC components are manufactured domestically, generally have a price tag of below IDR 100 million (USD $7,700). Currently LCGC sales still form a small portion of total car sales in Indonesia (about 14 percent) and therefore there is ample room for further growth.

Gaikindo Indonesia International Auto Show 2015 (GIIAS 2015)

Gaikindo will organize its first (annual) automotive exhibition in August 2015 (and fosters the ambition to make this the largest car show in Asia): the Gaikindo Indonesia International Auto Show 2015 (GIIAS 2015). This event will be held between 20 and 30 August at the Indonesia Convention Exhibition in Bumi Serpong Damai (BSD) City in Tangerang (West Java), approximately 40 kilometers from Jakarta. Reportedly, 32 car brands and 400,000 participants are expected to attend this exhibition.

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