Coal Industry Update Indonesia: Export, Production & Domestic Demand
Indonesian coal exports are expected to fall below 300 million tons in 2016 as domestic miners are cutting coal production volumes due to low coal prices. Indonesia’s October benchmark thermal coal reference price (set by the government) fell 1.4 percent (m/m) to USD $57.39 per metric ton (FOB) and now stands at an all-time record low since the start of this reference price in January 2009. Meanwhile, global benchmark coal prices are nearly touching nine-year lows.
Pandu Sjahrir, Chairman of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI), said the cash-flow of around 65 percent of Indonesian coal miners is not enough to sustain their businesses, hence deciding to cut output. Reduced coal output in Indonesia should manage to boost global coal prices which are nearly touching nine-year lows on the global supply glut and slowing international demand, particularly from China. Sjahrir expects coal prices to rise slightly in 2016 to around USD $60 per ton.
Indonesia, the world's top thermal coal producer, may export between 330 and 360 million tons of coal in 2015. Meanwhile, domestic coal consumption is estimated at 90 million tons in 2015 and 100 million tons in 2016. Domestic consumption of coal is expected to grow as the Indonesian government targets to have built 35 gigawatts of new power stations, mostly coal-fired, by 2019.
Indonesian Production, Export and Consumption of Coal:
| 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015¹ | |
| Production | 217 | 240 | 254 | 275 | 353 | 412 | 474 | 458 | 400 |
| Export | 163 | 191 | 198 | 210 | 287 | 345 | 402 | 382 | 345 |
| Domestic | 61 | 49 | 56 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 72 | 76 | 90 |
¹ indicates forecast
in million tons
Source: Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI)