Commodities: Cocoa Price to Remain Bearish on the Short Term
The price of cocoa is expected to remain bearish on the short-term as supplies are set to rise in the western part of Africa, particularly Ivory Coast and Ghana. At the end of trading on Wednesday (03/05) the cocoa price had slid 1.16 percent to USD $1,784 per ton (on the ICE Futures New York, July 2017 delivery). Since the start of 2017 the cocoa price has fallen 15.56 percent.
However, Hightower Report analyst Terry Roggensack says the bearish trend of cocoa prices will not end soon. Last month, April 2017, the mid-crop harvest season started in western African countries, where the majority of the globe's cocoa beans are produced (the mid-crop season contributes more than one-fifth to full-year cocoa bean output). In that month alone, prices declined 12 percent.
Meanwhile, Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara urges local cocoa farmers to boost production (as well as the quality of the beans). Therefore, the nation is now on track to see a record harvest this year that will continue to put pressure on prices.
The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) projects a steep increase in cocoa production in Ivory Coast in the 2016-2017 season (the season starts in October and runs until the end of September in the next year), ranging between 1.9 - 2.0 million, up from an estimated production of 1.6 million tons in the preceding season.
Indonesia is the world's third-largest cocoa bean producer with most plantations located on the island of Sulawesi. There is a total of 1.7 million hectares of cocoa plantations in Indonesia. However, Indonesia's cocoa trees are relatively old, most of them being planted in the 1980s, and therefore productivity continues to decline. Problematically, more than 90 percent of cocoa plantations in Indonesia are owned by smallholder farmers and they lack the financial means to invest in new trees. Another problem is that farmers tend to switch to other agricultural crops such as rubber, rice and corn that are considered more profitable.
Cocoa Production 2015/2016:
| Country | Production (in tons) |
| Ivory Coast | 1,581,000 |
| Ghana | 778,000 |
| Indonesia | 350,000 |
| Ecuador | 232,000 |
| World | 4,031,000 |
Source: International Cocoa Organization (ICCO)
Cocoa Price Projection:
| Period | Price (USD/ton) |
| Q1-2017 | 2,078 |
| Q2-2017 | 1,846 |
| Q3-2017 | 1,816 |
| Q4-2017 | 1,842 |
| Full Year 2017 | 1,896 |
Source: World Bank