Commodity Watch Indonesia: Coal Price Expected to Rise

Based on data from China's statistics agency, China produced 9.6 million tons of coal per day in May 2017, down 2.2 percent month-on-month (m/m). This decline is attributed to stricter security checks at Chinese coal mines. Meanwhile, coal imports from Australia into China fell 13 percent (m/m) in May due to a strong tropical cyclone.

However, Indonesia's benchmark coal price (in Indonesian: Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA) fell 9.9 percent (m/m) to USD $75.46 per metric ton in June as it still needed to absorb the developments of the past month. The June HBA is at its lowest point in 2017. However, analysts believe there is room for growth from here on to the end of the year.

Indonesian Government's Benchmark Thermal Coal Price (HBA):

Month	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
January	109.29	87.55	81.90	63.84	53.20	86.23
February	111.58	88.35	80.44	62.92	50.92	83.32
March	112.87	90.09	77.01	67.76	51.62	81.90
April	105.61	88.56	74.81	64.48	52.32	82.51
May	102.12	85.33	73.60	61.08	51.20	83.81
June	96.65	84.87	73.64	59.59	51.87	75.46
July	87.56	81.69	72.45	59.16	53.00
August	84.65	76.70	70.29	59.14	58.37
September	86.21	76.89	69.69	58.21	63.93
October	86.04	76.61	67.26	57.39	69.07
November	81.44	78.13	65.70	54.43	84.89
December	81.75	80.31	69.23	53.51	101.69

^{in USD/ton
Source: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources}

Indonesian Production, Export, Consumption & Price of Coal:

	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Production (in mln tons)	217	240	254	275	353	412	474	458	461
Export (in mln tons)	163	191	198	210	287	345	402	382	366
Domestic (in mln tons)	61	49	56	65	66	67	72	76	87
Price (HBA) (in USD/ton)	n.a	n.a	70.7	91.7	118.4	95.5	82.9	72.6	60.1

^{Sources: Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) & Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources}

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