Indonesia's 16-Month Falling Car Sales Streak is Over
Car sales in Indonesia grew 4.6 percent (y/y) to 84,703 vehicles in April 2016 from 81,000 vehicles in the same month last year. This is a remarkable result as monthly car sales growth (on a year-on-year basis) had been declining for 16 straight months previously. Stakeholders in the automotive industry hope that this is the start of a rebound, in line with accelerating economic growth. In the first quarter of 2016 Indonesia's economic growth accelerated to a growth pace of 4.92 percent (y/y), higher than the 4.73 percent GDP growth pace in the same quarter last year.
On a month-on-month basis Indonesia's car sales fell 9.9 percent (m/m) to 84,703 vehicles in April from 93,990 units in the preceding month. This decline was partly explained by a steep decline in Honda sales. Honda Prospect Motor stated that its sales fell 30 percent (m/m) to 14,384 units as stocks of various Honda models were finished. Honda controls a 20.7 percent market share in Indonesia's car market.
Henry Tanoto, Vice President Director of Toyota Astra Motor (TAM), said the positive country's car sales figure in April could be the starting point of rising car sales in the months ahead. TAM's wholesales rose from 29,996 units in March to 31,060 units in April 2016, while its retail sales rose 6.1 percent to 31,626 vehicles, supported by a 28.2 percent growth of Toyota Rush (a medium sports utility vehicle) sales. Toyota remains the most popular car brand in Indonesia, controlling a 38 percent market share.
Read more: Analysis and Overview of Indonesia's Automotive Industry
According to data from the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo), car sales in Indonesia accumulated to 351,947 vehicles in the January-April 2016 period, down 3.3 percent (y/y) from 363,944 vehicles in the same period last year. Previously, Gaikindo announced it expects car sales in Indonesia to grow between 5 and 10 percent to 1.05 - 1.1 million vehicles in full-year 2016. Despite the weak start of the year it has not revised this forecast.
Indonesian Car Sales (CBU):
| Month | Sold Cars 2012 |
Sold Cars 2013 |
Sold Cars 2014 |
Sold Cars 2015 |
Sold Cars 2016 |
| January | 76,427 | 96,718 | 103,609 | 94,194 | 85,012 |
| February | 86,486 | 103,278 | 111,824 | 88,740 | 88,225 |
| March | 87,917 | 95,996 | 113,067 | 99,410 | 93,990 |
| April | 87,144 | 102,257 | 106,124 | 81,600 | 84,703 |
| May | 95,541 | 99,697 | 96,872 | 79,375 | |
| June | 101,746 | 104,268 | 110,614 | 82,172 | |
| July | 102,511 | 112,178 | 91,334 | 55,615 | |
| August | 76,445 | 77,964 | 96,652 | 90,537 | |
| September | 102,100 | 115,974 | 102,572 | 93,038 | |
| October | 106,754 | 112,039 | 105,222 | 88,408 | |
| November | 103,703 | 111,841 | 91,327 | 86,938 | |
| December | 89,456 | 97,706 | 78,802 | 73,264 | |
| Total | 1,116,230 |
1,229,916 |
1,208,019 | 1,013,291 |
| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | |
| Car Sales (car units) |
607,805 | 486,061 | 764,710 | 894,164 | 1,116,230 |
1,229,916 | 1,208,019 | 1,013,291 |
| Car Exports (car units) |
100,982 | 56,669 | 85,769 | 107,932 | 173,368 | 170,907 | 202,273 | 207,691 |
Source: Gaikindo