In the first six months of 2016, Indonesian car sales totaled 531,860 units, up a mere 1 percent (y/y) from car sales in the same period one year earlier, indicating that Indonesians' purchasing power and consumer confidence have only grown slightly over the past year. Car sales are a good indicator to measure purchasing power and consumer confidence. In full-year 2016, the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo) targets to see car sales grow between 5 - 10 percent (y/y) to 1.1 million vehicles.

The 11.4 percent (y/y) increase in car sales in June 2016 is therefore not so much supported by a fundamental improvement in the Indonesian economy but more likely because the car buying spree (supported by the 13th month salary) ahead of the Idul Fitri holiday occurred in June, whereas last year it occurred in July (when the Idul Fitri holiday fell on 16 - 22 July 2015). 

Given consumers were eager to buy a car before the Idul Fitri holiday (that started on 4 July 2016) and July is a month with relatively limited working days (due to the public holiday) it implies that Indonesia's July car sales may show a steep fall. Car sales should rebound in August supported by the Gaikindo Indonesia International Auto Show (GIIAS), held between 11 and 21 August 2016, reportedly the largest automotive exhibition in Southeast Asia. At this event several local car manufacturers will launch new car models.

Indonesian Car Sales (CBU):

 Month    Sold Cars
      2012
   Sold Cars
      2013
   Sold Cars
      2014
   Sold Cars
      2015
   Sold Cars
      2016
 January      76,427      96,718     103,609      94,194      85,012
 February      86,486     103,278     111,824      88,740      88,250
 March      87,917      95,996     113,067      99,410      93,990
 April      87,144     102,257     106,124      81,600      84,600
 May      95,541      99,697      96,872      79,375      88,537
 June     101,746     104,268     110,614      82,172      91,471
 July     102,511     112,178      91,334      55,615
 August      76,445      77,964      96,652      90,537
 September     102,100     115,974     102,572      93,038
 October     106,754     112,039     105,222      88,408
 November     103,703     111,841      91,327      86,938
 December      89,456      97,706      78,802      73,264
 Total    1,116,230
   1,229,916
   1,208,019    1,013,291

 

     2008    2009    2010    2011     2012     2013     2014     2015
Car Sales
(car units)
 607,805  486,061  764,710  894,164 1,116,230
1,229,916 1,208,019 1,013,291
Car Exports
(car units)
 100,982   56,669   85,769  107,932  173,368  170,907  202,273  207,691

Source: Gaikindo

Can Indonesia surpass Thailand as biggest SEA car hub in next five years?

Voting possible:  -

Results

  • Yes, but more incentives from government are needed to attract investment (60.3%)
  • Yes, it will not even require additional efforts, it just needs time (17.6%)
  • No, Thailand's automotive industry is too strong (17.6%)
  • I don't know (4.4%)

Total amount of votes: 68

-

Discuss