Indonesia's Reference Coal Price Rises 1.3% m/m in June 2016
The June 2016 reference thermal coal price of Indonesia (in Indonesian: Harga Batubara Acuan, HBA), a price set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry on a monthly basis, rose 1.3 percent month-on-month to USD $51.81 per metric ton (FOB). In line with our earlier predictions, Indonesia's coal price has been stabilizing just above the USD $50 per ton level so far this year, supported by miners' decision to cut output amid low coal prices. Meanwhile, coal prices in Europe surged to the highest level in ten months, buoyed by rising fuel prices as well as supply disruptions.
The Indonesian Agency for Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysics (BMKG) said unusually wet weather in Indonesia - brought about by the La Nina weather phenomenon - is expected to disrupt coal production, export and logistics in the July-January period on the islands of Sumatra and Kalimantan, the two key coal producing regions in Indonesia, the world's largest exporter of thermal coal.
La Nina is the opposite of the El Nino weather phenomenon that disrupted Southeast Asia's agricultural commodities in the second half of 2015 and early 2016 by bringing severe dry weather. La Nina, on the contrary, brings cooler-than-average sea temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, hence causing wetter-than-usual weather in Southeast Asia. Just like El Nino-inflicted droughts disturb agricultural output, La Nina-inflicted heavy and prolonged rainfall also disrupts harvests (due to floods or landslides). Analysts see a big chance of La Nina occurring in the second half of 2016.
Indonesian Government's Benchmark Thermal Coal Price (HBA):
| Month | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
2016 |
| January | 109.29 | 87.55 | 81.90 | 63.84 | 53.20 |
| February | 111.58 | 88.35 | 80.44 | 62.92 | 50.92 |
| March | 112.87 | 90.09 | 77.01 | 67.76 | 51.62 |
| April | 105.61 | 88.56 | 74.81 | 64.48 | 52.32 |
| May | 102.12 | 85.33 | 73.60 | 61.08 | 51.20 |
| June | 96.65 | 84.87 | 73.64 | 59.59 | 51.87 |
| July | 87.56 | 81.69 | 72.45 | 59.16 | |
| August | 84.65 | 76.70 | 70.29 | 59.14 | |
| September | 86.21 | 76.89 | 69.69 | 58.21 | |
| October | 86.04 | 76.61 | 67.26 | 57.39 | |
| November | 81.44 | 78.13 | 65.70 | 54.43 | |
| December | 81.75 | 80.31 | 69.23 | 53.51 |
in USD/ton
Source: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources