Indonesian Rupiah Depreciates Sharply on Greek Default Concern
The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate is depreciating sharply on Thursday (12/02). By 12:10 pm local Jakarta timezone, the currency had fallen 1.11 percent to IDR 12,865 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Market participants have become increasingly concerned about a Greek default or exit from the Eurozone and react by selling emerging market assets in search of safe havens such as the US dollar. Yesterday (11/02), the Eurozone’s finance ministers could not reach agreement on the Greek debt situation.
Late last night Jeroen Dijsselbloem, Chairman of the Eurogroup Finance Ministers, said that "we had an intense discussion, constructive, covering a lot of ground, also making progress, but not enough progress yet to come to joint conclusions." Next Monday, the new (leftist) government of Greece and its international creditors will continue discussions in search of a way forward regarding the country's bailout program (Greece’s bailout package will expire this month).
In line with other emerging Asian currencies, the rupiah is losing ground to the US dollar on Thursday. Besides uncertainty caused by the ‘Greek default’ issue, the market is also waiting for the finalization of Indonesia’s Revised 2015 State Budget (APBN-P 2015) in parliament. This should be ready before the week ends.
Bank Indonesia's benchmark rupiah rate (Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate, abbreviated JISDOR) depreciated 0.74 percent to IDR 12,794 per US dollar on Thursday 12/01).
| Source: Bank IndonesiaOn Friday (13/02), the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) is scheduled to release the official fourth quarter (2014) current account figures. Since late 2011, Indonesia has had to cope with a wide current account deficit, indicating that the country is relying on foreign inflows (and therefore vulnerable to capital outflows in times of economic shocks). The current account deficit in 2014 is expected to have improved to about 3 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) from 3.3 percent of GDP in the preceding year. A significant improvement in the country’s deficit is expected to boost the rupiah. Although the current low crude oil prices have a positive impact on the balance (Indonesia being a net oil importer since the mid-2000s), prices for Indonesia’s key commodities (such as crude palm oil and coal) have fallen in recent months thus limiting the country’s export performance.
Indonesia Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
Meanwhile, Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) had fallen 0.18 percent to 5,327.08 points by 12:35 pm local Jakarta time on Thursday (12/02).