Indonesian Stocks & Rupiah: Investors Cautious ahead of US Jobs Data
Indonesian stocks and the rupiah are slightly down on Friday afternoon (04/09). Similar to yesterday it is a relatively quiet trading today (possibly caused by closed markets in Shanghai hence curtailing the spread of severe volatility). By 15:20 pm local Jakarta time the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index was down 0.48 percent to 4,411.99 points while the Indonesian rupiah had depreciated 0.07 percent to IDR 14,180 per US dollar (based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index).
Most Asian stock indices are sliding while the region's currencies are weakening against the US dollar on Friday as investors are cautious ahead of US jobs data (to be released later today). Yesterday, US August ISM non-manufacturing PMI was better than expected (although dropping from the preceding month) and forms an indication that the condition of the US economy is good. Strong US jobs data later today would heighten speculation of a possible September Fed Fund Rate hike (although many analysts are now expecting to see a hike in December as recent volatility has been excessive due to the perceived hard landing of China’s economy while recent statements of several Fed officials also seem to indicate that it is better to raise US interest rates too late than too soon in order to maintain a healthy US economy).
News from the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday (03/09) also provided ammunition for the US dollar at the expense of emerging market currencies. ECB President Mario Draghi said the ECB is ready to inject more stimulus into the Eurozone if turmoil in China, sluggish global growth, looming US interest rates, and the recent drop in oil prices should jeopardize the recovery of the Eurozone’s economy. As a result the euro and euro bond yields immediately weakened. Draghi emphasized that the economic recovery of the Eurozone is expected to persist, albeit at a slower pace.
Meanwhile, falling commodity prices have caused additional pressure on currencies of key commodity exporting markets, such as Indonesia.
Bank Indonesia's benchmark rupiah rate (Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate, abbreviated JISDOR) depreciated 0.18 percent to IDR 14,178 per US dollar on Friday (04/09).