Influence Indonesian Quick Count Results on Rupiah and Stock Market
Although not all quick count scores indicate a Joko Widodo (Jokowi) win, Indonesia’s stock and financial markets have gained considerably on Thursday (10/07) - one day after the 2014 Indonesian presidential election - on speculation that the General Elections Commission (KPU) will declare Jokowi the winner of the election on 22 July 2014. Out a total of 12 quick counts (mentioned below), eight showed a Jokowi win. Importantly, these seven quick counts include the authoritative agencies that traditionally have been highly accurate.
These authoritative quick counts (including Indikator Politik Indonesia, Radio Republik Indonesia and Lingkaran Survei Indonesia) show a tight yet sufficient lead for Jokowi of about five percentage points (whereas these quick counts have a margin of error of less than two percent). However, it should be noted that these quick counts are unofficial and people will have to wait for 22 July to hear the official result. In case of a dispute (if one camp does not acknowledge the official outcome of the KPU), then the Constitutional Court of Indonesia will have to decide on the matter. This will take up to August 2014 before the final judgement has been made.
Confusion increased yesterday as both presidential candidates (Joko Widodo and Prabowo Subianto) declared a victory based on outcomes of different quick counts. However, markets seem confident about a Widodo win.
Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, is the clear market favourite due to his reform-minded nature, clean record of corruption and pro-people attitude. According to many, Jokowi offers a future to Southeast Asia’s largest economy instead of a past, such as rival presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto. Subianto, a former army general during the authoritarian Suharto regime (Suharto was Subianto’s father-in-law), is controversial because he has been linked to human rights violations and comes from a highly corrupted background (the inner Suharto circle who had been able to establish huge business empires due to their loyalty and closeness to president Suharto).
The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index) had risen 2.04 percent to 5,127.21 points by 12:11 pm local Jakarta time, thus approaching its all-time record high level. Meanwhile, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate had appreciated 0.61 percent to IDR 11,555 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index) by the same time on Thursday (10/07).
Bank Indonesia's benchmark rupiah rate (Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate, abbreviated JISDOR) appreciated 1.25 percent to IDR 11,549 against the US dollar:
Indonesian Rupiah vs US Dollar (JISDOR):
| Source: Bank IndonesiaQuick Count results Indonesian Presidential Election 2014:
| Candidate |
Indikator Politik Indonesia |
Lingkaran Survei Indonesia |
Litbang Kompas | CSIS-Cyrus Networks |
Poltracking Indonesia |
Populi Center |
|
 Subianto |
47.06% | 46.72% | 47.66% | 48.10% | 46.63% | 49.05% | |
 Widodo |
52.94% | 53.28% | 52.34% | 51.90% | 53.37% | 50.95% | |
| Candidate |
Saiful Mujani Research Center |
Radio Republik Indonesia | Puskaptis | Indonesia Research Center |
Lembaga Survei Nasional | Jaringan Suara Indonesia | |
Subianto |
47.03% | 47.38% | 52.05% | 51.11% | 50.19% | 50.16% | |
| Widodo |
52.97% | 52.62% | 47.95% | 48.89% | 49.81% | 49.84% | |
Source: Investor Daily