Economic Assumptions Indonesia: GDP, Rupiah, Export, Oil & Gas
Indonesian authorities, i.e. the government and central bank (Bank Indonesia), announced or revised several macroeconomic assumptions for 2015 and 2016. Perhaps most importantly, Indonesia’s 2016 economic growth assumption has been revised down to the range of 5.5 - 6.0 percent (y/y), down from its previous assumption of 5.8 - 6.2 percent (y/y). Indonesian Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro also stated that the government will assume the rupiah at IDR 13,000 - 13,400 per US dollar for the 2016 calendar year.
The government’s previous assumption for the rupiah in the 2016 budget was at IDR 12,800 - 13,200 per US dollar. So far this year, the rupiah has been the worst performing currency in emerging Asia, having depreciated 7.0 percent against the US dollar due to slowing domestic economic growth and bullish US dollar momentum amid monetary tightening in the world’s largest economy.
Bank Indonesia's benchmark rupiah rate (Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate, abbreviated JISDOR) appreciated 0.02 percent to IDR 13,316 per US dollar on Tuesday (23/06).
Indonesian Rupiah versus US Dollar (JISDOR):
| Source: Bank IndonesiaIndonesia’s economic growth for calendar year 2016 was revised to 5.5 - 6.0 percent by the government due to expected sluggish global and domestic growth in the period ahead. Both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) see Indonesia’s economic growth in 2015 at 4.7 percent, partly on the country’s weak export performance. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo stated yesterday (22/06) that Indonesian exports in 2015 are expected to decline 14 percent to USD $151.6 billion. This is a deeper plunge than the central bank’s earlier projection of negative export growth at 11 percent. In 2014, Indonesia’s exports were down 3.43 percent (y/y) to USD $176.3 billion. Weakening exports are particularly caused by economic slowing in China, one of the key export markets for Indonesian commodities and products.
Indonesia's Quarterly GDP Growth 2009–2015 (annual % change):
| Year | Quarter I |
Quarter II | Quarter III | Quarter IV |
| 2015 | 4.71 | |||
| 2014 | 5.14 | 5.03 | 4.92 | 5.01 |
| 2013 | 6.03 | 5.81 | 5.62 | 5.72 |
| 2012 | 6.29 | 6.36 | 6.17 | 6.11 |
| 2011 | 6.45 | 6.52 | 6.49 | 6.50 |
| 2010 | 5.99 | 6.29 | 5.81 | 6.81 |
| 2009 | 4.60 | 4.37 | 4.31 | 4.58 |
Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS)
Meanwhile, the Indonesian government and the House of Representative’s Commission VII (which oversees the energy sector) approved Indonesia’s gas production in the range of 1.1 million - 1.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in the 2016 state budget. Last week, the oil output target had been agreed at 800,000 to 830,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the 2016 State Budget, with an assumed Indonesian crude oil price of USD $60 to $70 per barrel and subsidy for diesel fuel at IDR 1,000 (USD $0.08) per liter.