Macroeconomic Update Indonesia: Rupiah, GDP & Budget Deficit
Agus Martowardojo, the governor of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia), provided some new forecasts with regard to Indonesia's economic growth and rupiah. On Tuesday (06/06) Martowardojo told at a parliamentary hearing that he expects the rupiah to depreciate modestly in 2018, while economic growth should accelerate. Meanwhile, Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said Indonesia's state budget deficit is estimated to widen slightly more-than-expected in 2017.
Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo expects the Indonesian rupiah to depreciate to the range of IDR 13,400 - IDR 13,700 per US dollar in 2018. This is slightly weaker than the forecast for this year at the range of IDR 13,300 - IDR 13,600 per US dollar. Main reasons why the rupiah is estimated to depreciate are the looming interest rate hikes in the USA (possibly a total of three in 2017), while possible geopolitical turmoil also creates a stronger US dollar. Moreover, there remains concern about the stability of the Chinese economy.
On Tuesday (06/06) the rupiah depreciated 0.14 percent to IDR 13,297 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). However, Bank Indonesia's benchmark rupiah rate (Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate, abbreviated as JISDOR) appreciated 0.02 percent to IDR 13,285 per US dollar on Tuesday (06/06). So far this year the rupiah has appreciated about 1.4 percent against the greenback.
Indonesian Rupiah versus US Dollar (JISDOR):
| Source: Bank IndonesiaMeanwhile, Bank Indonesia expects Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth to accelerate slightly to the range of 5.1 - 5.5 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2018, from an estimated 5.0 - 5.4 percent (y/y) in 2017.
Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said Indonesia's state budget deficit is estimated to be 2.5 percent of GDP in 2017, slightly higher than the 2.41 percent that was predicted earlier, and higher than the 2.49 percent of GDP realization in 2016. A revised state budget will be delivered to the House of Representatives (DPR) later this month, one that may include an upward revised GDP growth target for 2017.