Motorcycle Sales ASEAN: Vietnam Threatens Indonesia's Position?
Indonesia has the biggest motorcycle market within the ASEAN region. It is estimated that Indonesia accounts for 70 percent of total motorcycle sales in ASEAN. This implies that the slowdown in Indonesia's motorcycle sales has a big impact on overall sales in the region. Based on data from the ASEAN Automotive Federation (AAF), total motorcycle sales in ASEAN in the first ten months of 2016 fell 1.2 percent to 7.91 million from sales in the same period one year earlier.
The AAF has five member countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. In the January-October 2016 period only Indonesia shows declining motorcycle sales among these five countries. In the first ten months of 2016 Indonesia's motorcycles sales fell 7.9 percent (y/y) to 5.16 million units.
The other countries within the AAF posted growth. For example, motorcycle sales in the Philippines surged 37.9 percent (y/y) to 941,847 motorcycles in the aforementioned period, a very strong performance.
Sigit Kumala, Chairman of the commercial department of the Indonesian Motorcycle Industry Association (AISI), said Indonesia - being the biggest motorcycle producer and market within ASEAN - has a decisive impact on overall motorcycle sales figures in ASEAN. However, he added that Vietnam has been a growing force within the motorcycle industry. In the January-October 2016 period Vietnam posted around 3 million of motorcycle sales. Therefore, if it joins the AAF it would take away a chunk of Indonesia's market share in terms of motorcycle sales and production.
Gunadi Sindhuwinata, President of the Federation of Asian Motorcycle Industries (FAMI), agrees that Vietnam is able to threaten Indonesia's position within Southeast Asia in terms of motorcycle production and sales. Although motorcycle sales volumes currently are higher in Indonesia, Vietnam has shown a much better sales trend performance over the past two years.
In Indonesia motorcycle sales have been declining over the past two years due to weakening purchasing power during the economic slowdown in the years 2011-2015. Low commodity prices were also behind this decline. Now commodity prices are rising (particularly coal, crude palm oil and crude oil), while the economic slowdown seems to have ended, Indonesia may see rising motorcycle sales again in 2017.
Exports of motorcycles, on the other hand, have surged sharply so far in 2016. In the first nine months of 2016 Indonesia exported 300,000 motorcycle units (mostly scooters), up a whopping 500 percent (y/y) compared to motorcycle exports from Indonesia in the same period one year earlier. Indonesia's main export markets for the three-wheelers are Germany and the Philippines.
Motorcycle Sales in ASEAN:
| Country | Jan. - Oct. 2015 |
Jan. - Oct. 2016 |
Y/Y (%) |
| Indonesia | 5,600,831 | 5,157,898 | -7.9 |
| Thailand | 1,394,771 | 1,476,273 | 5.8 |
| Philippines | 683,074 | 941,847 | 37.9 |
| Malaysia |
321,936 | 328,738 | 2.1 |
| Singapore | 6,154 | 7,001 | 13.8 |
Source: ASEAN Automotive Federation