Projections Indonesia's April 2014 Inflation and March 2014 Trade Balance

The month of April usually brings low inflation or deflation due to the annual peak of the harvest season. This effect tends to continue into May. However, in July there are traditional inflationary pressures because of the Islamic fasting month (Ramadan) as well as the arrival of the new school year.

Inflation in Indonesia:

Month	Monthly Growth 2013	Monthly Growth 2014
January	1.03%	1.07%
February	0.75%	0.26%
March	0.63%	0.08%
April	-0.10%
May	-0.03%
June	1.03%
July	3.29%
August	1.12%
September	-0.35%
October	0.09%
November	0.12%
December	0.55%
Total	8.38%	1.41%

	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Inflation (annual percent change)	9.8	4.8	5.1	5.4	4.3	8.4

^{Source: Statistics Indonesia}

Trade Balance March 2014

Suryamin also stated that he expects another trade surplus in March 2014 as exports have been picking up, particularly non-oil & gas exports such as shoes, garments and textiles. Moreover, the price of coal - one of Indonesia's most important export products - has risen lately. The negative impact of the new 2009 Mining Law, which bans exports of unprocessed minerals, has eased according to Suryamin. Another trade surplus in March will help to further curb the country's current account deficit.

Indonesia's Trade Balance 2014 (in billion US Dollar):

2014	Export			Import
Month	Oil & Gas	Non Oil & Gas	Total	Oil & Gas	Non Oil & Gas	Total
January	2,50	11,97	14,47	3,55	11,37	14,92
February	2,66	11,91	14,57	3,46	10,33	13,79
Jan-Feb	5,16	23.88	29,04	7,01	21,69	28,70

Indonesia's Trade Balance 2013 (in billion US Dollar):

2013	Export			Import
Month	Oil & Gas	Non Oil & Gas	Total	Oil & Gas	Non Oil & Gas	Total
January	2,66	12,72	15,38	3,97	11,48	15,45
February	2,57	12,45	15,02	3,64	11,67	15,31
March	2,93	12,09	15,02	3,90	10,99	14,89
April	2,45	12,31	14,76	3,63	12,83	16,46
May	2,92	13,21	16,13	3,43	13,23	16,66
June	2,80	11,96	14,76	3,53	12,11	15,64
July	2,28	12,81	15,09	4,14	13,28	17,42
August	2,72	10,36	13,08	3,67	9,34	13,01
September	2,41	12,29	14,70	3,72	11,79	15,51
October	2,72	12,99	15,70	3,47	12,20	15,67
November	2,77	13,17	15,94	3,70	11,21	15,15
December	3,41	13,58	16,98	4,22	11,24	15,46
Jan-Dec	32,63	149,93	182,57	45,27	141,36	186,36