Trade Balance: Impressive Rebound in Palm Oil Shipments Support Export Performance
Although the trade performance of Indonesia was not as good as one month earlier, it is positive that its exports and imports experienced an increase (in value) in June 2024 compared to the same month one year ago.
Based on the latest data from Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (BPS), Indonesia’s trade balance showed a surplus of USD $2.39 billion in June 2024, which is slightly lower than the USD $2.92 billion surplus in May 2024. Particularly the near USD $1 billion rebound in palm oil exports supported Indonesia’s June 2024 exports on a month-on-month (m/m) basis.
But before we delve into the latest trade statistics of Indonesia, let’s first take a closer look at the international trade environment.
International Trade
In its latest trade update, released in early July 2024, the United Nations Trade and Development Conference (UNCTAD) stated that global trade trends turned positive in Q1-2024, with the value of trade in goods growing by around 1.0 percent quarter-over-quarter (q/q) and services by about 1.5 percent (q/q). The positive trends are supported by strengthening trade dynamics for the United States and the developing countries, especially large Asian developing economies such as China and India, and are expected to add USD $250 billion to goods trade and USD $100 billion to services trade in the first half of 2024 (compared to the second half of 2023).
Meanwhile, forecasts for global GDP growth remain at around 3.0 percent year-on-year (y/y) for 2024, with the short-term trade outlook being cautiously optimistic. If positive trends persist, then international trade in 2024 could reach almost USD $32 trillion, although it is unlikely to surpass the record level achieved in 2022.
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