Trade Balance of Indonesia: Another Wide Trade Surplus, But Exports and Imports Fall in April 2024
Indonesia enjoyed another great USD $3.56 billion trade surplus in April 2024. But unfortunately the nation’s exports and imports both dropped on a month-on-month (m/m) basis. However, that was in line with our expectations as trade was disrupted by the end of the Ramadan month and the subsequent Idul Fitri celebrations (which meant a week-long holiday for Indonesia).
But before we delve into the latest trade statistics of Indonesia, let’s first take a closer look at the international trade environment.
International Trade
What is there to inform? Well, it’s interesting that the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), International Monetary Fund (IMF), and World Trade Organization (WTO) all seem to agree that global trade is set to rise strongly in 2024 (after last year’s slowdown that was caused by high inflation, high interest rates and subdued economic growth). The factors that should facilitate this expected growth of global trade in 2024 are easing global inflation as well as strong economic growth in the world’s top economies, the United States and China.
The OECD expects global trade in goods and services to grow 2.3 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2024, followed by a 3.3 percent (y/y) in 2025. Clare Lombardelli, who is chief economist at the OECD, said that the positive outlook is based on an expected cyclical recovery as trade increases alongside broader global economic growth. She added that it are particularly China and East Asia that drive the growth.
Meanwhile, in its most recent World Economic Outlook report, the IMF emphasized that growth in global trade volumes could reach 3.0 percent (y/y) in 2024, and 3.3 percent (y/y) in 2025. However, it does constitute a 0.3 percent downward revision (for both 2024 and 2025) compared to the IMF’s January 2024 outlook. Moreover, it also means that world trade growth in 2024-2025 will remain below its historical (2000–2019) annual average growth rate of 4.9 percent (y/y). And something else the IMF noted was that the world’s trade-to-GDP ratios remain relatively stable amid significant shifts in trade patterns, with growing fractures existing along geopolitical lines, particularly since the beginning of the Russo-Ukrainian war in February 2022. The IMF detects that growth in trade flows between the geopolitical blocs has eased significantly since then, compared with growth of trade within those blocs.
Meanwhile, the WTO, ...
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This is the introduction of the article. Contact us to buy the full report (an electronic report, PDF) by email info@indonesia-investments.com or send a message to +62.882.9875.1125 (including WhatsApp).
The report discusses:
- the latest developments related to international trade;
- April 2024 export and import of China and Japan;
- Global coal and palm oil prices;
- Indonesia's export performance in April 2024 (including all key statistics); and
- Indonesia's import performance in April 2024 (including all key statistics).
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