Indonesia is on track to achieve its (revised) oil lifting target in 2016 (referring to crude oil that is ready for sale). Two weeks before the end of 2016, Indonesia produced an average of 821,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd) this year so far, slightly above the target of 820,000 bpd that was set in the Revised 2016 State Budget. Initially, the Indonesian government targeted national oil production at 830,000 bpd. However, earlier this year the target was revised down to 820,000 bpd.

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Indonesia's crude oil production (oil lifting) in full-year 2016 is expected to reach 819,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd), slightly below the target that is set in the Revised 2016 State Budget (820,000 bpd). Amien Sunaryadi, Head of the Special Task Force for Upstream Oil and Gas Business Activities (SKKMigas), said oil production realization in Indonesia so far this year stands at 834,000 bpd. However, due to seasonal factors output is set to fall in September. Moreover, amid low oil prices Indonesia somewhat discourages oil exploration and production.

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Crude oil prices are rebounding, climbing nearly 90 percent from 13-year lows at the start of 2016. However, compared to two years ago crude prices are still down 50 percent hence corporate earnings in the oil and gas industry remain subdued, while few investors are enticed to engage in exploration. To deal with low oil prices, oil and gas companies need to become more efficient thus pushing down production costs in order to optimize earnings. Lets take a look at Pertamina, Indonesia's state-owned energy company. How much does it cost for Pertamina to produce one barrel of oil?

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Indonesia's upstream oil & gas regulator SKK Migas said the nation's crude oil production in the first quarter of 2016 reached the average of 835,234 barrels per day (bpd), slightly above the target of 830,000 bpd that was set in the 2016 State Budget. This is positive news as it is rare for Indonesia to achieve its crude oil output target. In Q1-2016 the target was met due to the combination of a realistic oil production target and long-awaited crude production growth at Exxon Mobil Corp's Banyu Urip field (part of the Cepu Block in East Java).

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Indonesia's crude oil output was strong in the first quarter of 2016 on the back of higher-than-expected oil production of several oil companies in Indonesia. According to Indonesia's oil & gas regulator SKK Migas the nation's oil production totaled 833,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the January-March 2016 period, exceeding the oil lifting target that was set in the 2016 State Budget (830,000 bpd). It also means that the globe's low oil prices at the year-start, touching 12-year lows at around USD $27 per barrel, did not make local oil companies cut back on production rates.

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Oil production at the Banyu Urip field, part of the Cepu Block in East Java, has finally reached the level of 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) in February 2016 after a long delay. According to Indonesia's oil & gas regulator SKK Migas, production at the field stood at an average of 130,000 bpd in the first month of 2016. The Banyu Urip field, operated by ExxonMobil Cepu Ltd, is expected to reach its top production rate - around 165,000 bpd - in March or April. This would mean that the Banyu Urip field accounts for nearly 20 percent of Indonesia's total oil production.

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Although oil prices somewhat recovered from 12-year lows on Friday (08/01) on China's rebounding stock market there is concern that Indonesia will not achieve its 2016 oil lifting target as the country's oil producers become less eager to boost production rates amid unattractive oil prices. Yesterday, Brent oil fell to USD $32.16 per barrel - the lowest level since 2004 - after China devalued its yuan and Chinese stocks plunged over 7 percent causing the circuit-breaking mechanism to kick in and even causing a global stock selloff.

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The Finance Ministry of Indonesia released a statement on Sunday (03/01) saying that Indonesia failed to meet the majority of economic targets that were set in the (revised) 2015 State Budget. Primary reasons for the weaker-than-targeted performance are low commodity prices, sluggish global economic growth, China's economic slowdown, and capital outflows triggered by the tighter monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. Only realization of inflation and the treasury yield were in line with the government's targets.

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After a seven-year hiatus Indonesia will rejoin the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as a full member in December 2015. A statement on the website of the OPEC states that all members approved reactivating Indonesia’s full membership in the organization. At the next OPEC meeting, scheduled for 4 December 2015 in Vienna (Austria), Indonesia will be formally admitted back into the OPEC.

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Indonesia expects to produce between 800,000 and 830,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd) in 2016. This range was agreed during a working meeting between Commission VII (which oversees the country’s energy sector) of the House of Representatives (DPR) and the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry. The meeting was held in the context of deliberations on the 2016 State Budget. So far this year, Indonesia’s crude oil output stands at an average of 802,046 bpd (monthly basis). Domestic demand, however, stands at 1.43 million bpd.

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Indonesia’s crude oil production is expected to increase starting from mid-March 2015 as new oil fields will start to come online this month, including the Bukit Tua oil field (part of the Ketapang block in East Java and which is operated by Petronas Carigali). Over the past two decades Indonesia oil output has declined drastically amid maturing oil fields and the lack of exploration as well as other investments in Indonesia’s oil & gas sector. In 2014, Indonesia produced an average of 794,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd).

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It remains difficult for Indonesia to achieve oil production targets that are set by the Indonesian government. In fact, it is unlikely that Indonesia will meet this year’s revised oil lifting target of 818,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd) as set in the Revised 2014 State Budget. In the first half of 2014, Indonesia recorded an oil production rate of 797,000 bpd only. For almost two decades, Indonesia’s oil sector has been in a state of decline, evidenced by falling production rates, due to a lack of investments and aging oil fields.

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General Director of Oil and Gas at the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Edy Hermantoro said at the 38th IPA Convention and Exhibition on Friday (23/05) that the Indonesian government plans to tender a total of 21 blocks of oil and gas in a first bidding round in 2014. This involves 13 conventional oil and gas blocks and eight non-conventional (shale) oil and gas blocks. The government expects that these oil and gas blocks will add 3.5 billion barrels of oil and 107.7 trillion cubic (tcf) of gas resources.

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The sharply depreciated Indonesian rupiah exchange rate in the second half of 2013 in combination with the decline in domestic oil lifting has led to a soaring of fuel subsidy spending in 2014. In the 2014 State Budget (APBN 2014), the ceiling of energy subsidy spending for 3-kg LPG and fuels was set at IDR 210.7 billion (USD $18.3 billion). However, in the 2014 Revised State Budget Draft, the government proposes to raise the subsidy ceiling to IDR 285 trillion (USD $24.8 billion), thus swelling IDR 74.3 trillion from the initial ceiling.

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The government of Indonesia will submit a new draft proposal for the 2014 Revised State Budget (APBN-P 2014) on 20 May 2014. Of the seven basic macroeconomic assumptions in the 2014 State Budget (APBN 2014), three assumptions are proposed to be revised. These involve general economic growth, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate, and crude oil lifting. The government felt that the assumptions need a revision as results in the first quarter of 2014 have not been up to expectation.

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Only 50 days since the start of the fiscal year 2014 have passed and the government has already shown that it is not convinced to meet targets of basic macroeconomic assumptions set in the 2014 State Budget (APBN 2014). Therefore, the Indonesian government has lowered the outlook for all basic macroeconomic assumptions in the 2014 State Budget. On Thursday 19 February 2014, the government formally presented the downward revision of economic targets in the State Budget to the House of Representitative's Budget Agency.

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The government of Indonesia will revise its crude oil production target in 2014 to 820 thousand barrels per day (bpd), down from its previous target of 870 thousand bpd. The main reasons for this downgrade are the country's mature oil fields in combination with a lack of exploration as well as other investments in this sector. Indonesia, once an important oil exporting country and member of the OPEC, has seen its oil output decline drastically over the last decade, thus becoming a net importer as the country's domestic consumption continues to rise.

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Although Indonesia’s government stresses the need to relieve pressure on the state budget (by raising the price of subsidized fuel next month), it plans to allocate an additional IDR 16.1 trillion (USD $1.65 billion) to this year’s fuel subsidy budget. The additional allocation, which covers fuel, LPG and vegetable fuels, will raise government expenditure on fuel subsidies to IDR 209.9 trillion (USD $21.50 billion) from the IDR 193.8 trillion drafted in the original 2013 state budget (APBN 2013). Total energy subsidies will grow to IDR 309.9 trillion this year.

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