Indonesian Trade Minister Thomas Lembong targets an increase in the value of Indonesia's coffee exports of between 10 - 15 percent (y/y) to around USD $1.36 billion in 2016, up from USD $1.19 billion one year earlier. One key strategy to boost Indonesian coffee export is by broadening the export markets through promotional activities. An example is the Specialty Coffee Association of America (SCAA) Expo 2016, to be held between 14-17 April 2016 in Atlanta, Georgia (USA). At this event a total of17 Indonesian specialty coffees will be on display.

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Traders expect that Indonesia’s coffee production will be negatively affected by the El Nino weather phenomenon. Due to concern about Indonesia’s 2016/2017 season robusta output, European roasters are reportedly set to raise robusta imports from Vietnam, the world’s top robusta grower, or low-quality arabica from Brazil, the world’s top arabica grower.

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Due to the prolonged dry season impacting on harvests, coffee production in Indonesia as well as coffee exports from the world’s third-largest coffee grower continued to decline. Based on the latest data from the International Coffee Organization (ICO), Indonesia’s coffee output plunged 23 percent to 540 million kilograms in the period April 2014 to March 2015 compared to the same period in the previous year, while Indonesia’s coffee exports declined to 336 million kilograms from 612 million kilograms over the same period.

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The Central Java branch of the Association of Indonesian Coffee Exporters (AEKI) said that demand for luwak coffee (Indonesian: kopi luwak), an Indonesia specialty coffee and known as the world’s most expensive coffee, has been in decline since 2013. Luwak coffee is an extraordinary type of coffee as it is brewed from beans that have passed through the digestive system of the Asian palm civet cat. This labour-intensive production process and its scarcity on the global market cause luwak coffee’s expensive price.

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The Association of Indonesian Coffee Exporters and Industries (AEKI) expects coffee bean production in Indonesia to decline by about 11 percent to 650,000-670,000 tons in 2014, from 740,000 tons in the previous year. This decline is actually less severe than initially expected as weather conditions have improved in the main coffee bean growing regions on Sumatra. Meanwhile, output in 2015 is projected at 700,000 tons. Indonesia is currently the world’s third-largest coffee bean producer, after Brazil and Vietnam.

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The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects Indonesia's coffee exports to fall in the 2016/2017 season due to rising domestic coffee consumption in Indonesia and low productivity. In the January-May 2016 period coffee exports from Indonesia fell 33.9 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 117,000 metric tons from 177,000 metric tons in the same period one year earlier. Indonesia's main coffee export destination markets are the USA, European Union (EU), and Japan.

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