Tax revenue collection is showing good growth in Indonesia so far in 2018. However, due to the ambitious target set by the central government chances of another tax shortfall remain highly probable at the end of the year. Based on data from Indonesia's Finance Ministry, non-oil & gas tax revenue realization grew 19.1 percent year-on-year (y/y) to IDR 156.8 trillion (approx. USD $11.4 billion) between 1 January and 7 March 2018, from IDR 131.7 trillion in the same period one year earlier.

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The first phase of Indonesia's tax amnesty program was a success in terms of tax declarations and state revenue (penalties). Fund repatriations, on the other hand, were disappointing as - apparently - Indonesian tax payers find it not attractive enough to transfer these funds into Indonesian investment instruments or lack confidence in Indonesia's political and financial stability (perhaps still haunted by traumas from the Asian Financial Crisis in the late 1990s). However, Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati remains optimistic that repatriations will rise soon now the winner of the US presidential election is known.

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As Indonesia's budget deficit may widen to 2.78 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015, the government is ready to seek USD $5 billion through multilateral loans and private placement. Scenaider Siahaan, Director for Strategy and Debt Portfolio at the Finance Ministry's Directorate General of Debt Management, said it involves standby loans that can be disbursed in the two weeks ahead if needed. The main reason why the budget deficit may be wider than expected is Indonesia's weaker-than-estimated tax revenue.

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