Based on the quick count results, presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto will win the 2024 presidential election by a comfortable margin. Not only does he enjoy around 57-59 percent of the national votes, but he also seems to control at least 20 percent of the votes in over 20 provinces. This would mean that a second round is not even necessary. Still, we have to wait for the official result that is scheduled to be released on 20 March 2024.

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Today -14 February 2024- a total of 204.8 million Indonesian voters are allowed to visit the ballot boxes to vote for their preferred presidential candidate and political party for the 2024-2029 period. Voting takes place between 07:00 am and 13:00 pm (local time).

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In this month’s update, we are only focusing on the latest developments in terms of the upcoming 2024 legislative and presidential elections (that are scheduled for 14 February 2024). And so, for a wider analysis and background of these elections, we refer the reader to our articles published in earlier reports.

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Each quarter we present an update on the 2024 legislative and presidential elections of Indonesia. These elections are important as Indonesia is still a young democracy where policies can change rather suddenly and drastically.

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On 21 April 2023, just before the Idul Fitri celebrations started, the Chairwoman of Indonesia’s biggest political party (PDI-P), Megawati Soekarnoputri, announced that she decided to throw her support behind Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo as the party’s presidential candidate for the 2024 elections.

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While the 2024 general elections of Indonesia (involving both the presidential and legislative elections) are scheduled to be held on 14 February 2024, we expect to see a growing focus on these approaching elections throughout 2023. The reason is that campaigning will kick off before the end of 2023 (namely on 28 November 2023).

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Those who closely follow Indonesian media should have noticed that there has been an increase in coverage of the approaching 2024 presidential election. This involves articles and analyses of the electability of certain political persons (including polls and surveys) but also articles that we consider (hidden) marketing.

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On 20 March 2024, the General Elections Commission (Komisi Pemilihan Umum or KPU) officially declared Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming the winning pair of the 2024 presidential election (that had taken place on 14 February 2024).

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On Wednesday 14 February 2024, a total of around 204.8 million Indonesian voters were allowed to choose the new president for the 2024-2029 period. And while not all people will take advantage of their right to vote (and there always is a number of invalid votes), we do expect more than 80 percent of that total to have shown up on Valentine’s Day.

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With Indonesia’s legislative and presidential elections approaching (on 14 February 2024), we plan to give an update on the elections each month. As we have repeatedly emphasized, these elections are crucial as incumbent President Joko Widodo cannot compete due to the two-term cap. And so, someone else will be behind the country’s political and economic steering wheel.

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There is quite some controversial material to discuss after the Constitutional Court of Indonesia (Mahkamah Konstitusi, or MK) paved the way for incumbent President Joko Widodo’s eldest son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka (henceforth Gibran), to team up with Gerindra Chairman Prabowo Subianto in the presidential race.

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We plan to give an update on Indonesia’s 2024 legislative and presidential elections each quarter because these elections are quite important for the future of Indonesia. As is widely known, incumbent President Joko Widodo cannot join this 2024 race because of the two-term limit, and so – after one decade in office – Indonesia will have a new president in 2024.

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